State Capture: It's Not Just About Personalities

Former Eskom CEO Brian Molefe’s recent tribulations are an indication that certain factions within the ANC – those who oppose state capture – seem to be winning.

- Steven Friedman

It is probably no consolation to Brian Molefe, former CEO of South Africa’s power utility Eskom, that his woes are evidence that President Jacob Zuma’s March Cabinet reshuffle has so far had precisely the opposite effect to that which was expected. Nor, no doubt, would it cheer Molefe to know that his plight has become a symbol of an important reality: that who occupies which political post is turning out to be far less important to the government’s economic decision-making than it seemed.

Molefe’s woes are evidence that the country’s infamous Cabinet reshuffle has so far had precisely the opposite effect to that which was generally expected.

Before the reshuffle, many expected that, if Zuma did fire the finance minister and his deputy, the balance of power in government would shift sharply. Walls which held the state’s capture at bay would come tumbling down.

But this has not happened. The ANC patronage faction may have strengthened its presence in the Cabinet. But its attempt to take control of key institutions is in retreat in the face of opposition within the governing party and from unions, business and civil society groups.

Thus far the patronage group’s opponents have also turned the tide by winning changes which reversed its gains. This does not mean that the patronage faction’s opponents have won: the battle will continue to be fought decision by decision, day to day, possibly until the 2019 election. But the patronage group’s expected triumph has not materialised despite changes in the faces in government.

Molefe’s pyrrhic victory