The contest will feel familiar: the main two candidates are the same as in 2020. Joe Biden, the incumbent, faced no viable competition for the Democratic nomination. His predecessor in office, Donald Trump, easily saw off a crowded field in the Republican primary. This will be the first rematch election in almost 70 years. After Mr Trump lost the previous election, his supporters tried to overturn the result. He faces federal charges over his alleged participation in that scheme, as well as three other criminal cases. Mr Biden's presidency has been defined by high inflation, big industrial-policy bills and turmoil abroad, in Afghanistan, Ukraine and the Middle East. Both men are unpopular. The election will be less a popularity contest than a referendum which many Americans think is the least bad option.
The gaps between the perception of the economy and the reality, explained.
American economic pessimism has been bafflingly persistent despite major indicators showing that the economy is strong. Unemployment is low, inflation is significantly down from its 2022 peak (if sticky and ticking up in the last month), wages are up, the stock market is hitting new all-time highs, and it looks like the Federal Reserve might be able to keep the US out of a recession.
Surveys are beginning to capture growing consumer confidence but for President Joe Biden, the question is whether it's rising quickly enough for him to avoid being penalized in the 2024 election.
He had no control over the pandemic-rattled economy he inherited, but voters may nevertheless blame him for it, as they have (rightly or wrongly) blamed their presidents for the country's economic troubles in the past.
This story is from the April 2024 edition of Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Diplomatist.
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This story is from the April 2024 edition of Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Diplomatist.
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