When the financial crisis that caused &ldquo;the near death of the global banking system&rdquo; began in August 2007, many participants reacted like the generals in August 1914, said The Guardian: &ldquo;they thought it would be over by Christmas&rdquo;. But the complacency soon vanished. The first indication of trouble had come when the French bank BNP Paribas froze three of its funds on 9 August, citing a &ldquo;complete evaporation of liquidity&rdquo; because of problems in the US sub-prime market. That, as Northern Rock boss Adam Applegarth later observed, was &ldquo;the day the world changed&rdquo;. Within a month, the &ldquo;credit crunch&rdquo; had triggered a catastrophic run on the British lender. A year later the full hurricane arrived, said Iain Dey in The Sunday Times. The dramatic collapse of the Wall Street bank Lehman Brothers was swiftly followed by the nationalisation of RBS, HBOS and Lloyds.Today, the immediate causes of the crisis are relatively well understood and many of the deficiencies have been addressed, said Jeremy Warner in The Daily Telegraph. &ldquo;Bankers have been brought to heel, credit rating agencies dethroned, banks recapitalised&rdquo;, and &ldquo;terrified regulators awoken from slumbers&rdquo;. More broadly, &ldquo;the near destruction of the world economy&rdquo; has forced policymakers to become &ldquo;cognisant of the risks posed to&nbsp;economic well-being by financial instability&rdquo;. The bad news, however, is that &ldquo;the big macroeconomic causes of the crisis are still very much with us&rdquo;; indeed, the situation has got worse. &ldquo;Fighting the crisis with the same thing that caused it &ndash; debt &ndash; made some sense in its early stages&rdquo;, but ten years on, we&rsquo;re &ldquo;still taking the steroids&rdquo;. Cheap credit remains &ldquo;a politically convenient substitute for the lack of any meaningful wage growth&rdquo; and threatens to create even greater levels of financial instability. &ldquo;What is more, come the next recession or crisis, there is nothing left in either the fiscal or monetary locker to throw at it.&rdquo;We&rsquo;re often told that banks that were &ldquo;too big to fail&rdquo; have been tamed, said John Plender in the FT. But many are still &ldquo;simply too big to be manageable&rdquo;. When a group of J.P. Morgan Chase traders lost $6bn in 2012 in the so-called London Whale scandal, &ldquo;it was clear that top management in New York had absolutely no clue what was going on&rdquo;. Yet a decade on from the start of the crisis, &ldquo;fixing the banks looks the easier part of the job&rdquo;, said The Observer. The trigger to the next crisis might arrive from elsewhere &ndash; such as China, which is now having to cope with enormous levels of internal debt. &ldquo;How to replace debt with a better engine of growth remains the unsolved challenge. It is hard to be optimistic.&rdquo;

Issue Of The Week: The Credit Crunch, Ten Years On

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