THE MONSOON BLUES

The JAS quarter July August-September) is usually the worst of the four quarters for Indian aviation. AMEYA JOSHI dissects how it is likely to fare this year.

The last day of April was a bumper one for Indian aviation. Airports were buzzing, flights were full and the peak month of May lay ahead of everyone. The stage for a bumper month was set after the best-ever day in terms of domestic traffic was recorded on the last day of April. New highs were expected as May is the peak month for travel because of the holidays and the risk of COVID was at an all-time low this year.

Then came the surprise, something for which the industry was not ready. In the first week of May, Go First decided to shut down operations.

The airline, with its dwindling fleet due to issues with Pratt & Whitney-powered engines, was seeing increased groundings and limited operational aircraft. For the first time in the history of Indian aviation, an airline declared voluntary bankruptcy.

It got the focus back on the nature of the business in India, the profits which are as thin as a boarding pass and cutthroat competition with IndiGo being cash rich and, in a position, to add capacity at short notice which would hurt the competition. With Air India group starting to consolidate its airlines, that would be another group of airlines that will become stronger, irrespective of when it reaches its publicly stated goal of 30% market share in the domestic market.

JAS - the dreaded time!

July - August - September or JAS as the quarter is known in the industry is a dreaded quarter.

From the peaks of May to the lowest of lows in August, the industry goes through a churn like no other. The end of June marks the beginning of the monsoon in the country. This is also the time when schools start and this curtails the VFR or Visiting Friends and Relatives as well as the leisure traffic completely.