From U.S.-China tensions to the evolving role of Arab states, the global order is poised for a potential realignment. For India, a major regional power, Trump's leadership could open doors of opportunity while posing challenges across defense, trade, energy security, and diplomatic engagement.
As the world braces for the implications of "Trump 2.0," India's strategy must focus on agility, resilience, and adaptive partnerships.
U.S.-CHINA DYNAMICS UNDER TRUMP 2.0
A renewed Trump administration is likely to adopt a more confrontational stance toward China, exacerbating existing tensions. Key elements of Trump's potential China policy include:
• Economic Confrontation: Trade disputes could intensify, with heightened tariffs and sanctions against China, potentially destabilizing global trade systems.
• Technology Restrictions: Stricter limitations on China's access to advanced technologies would disrupt global innovation and supply chains.
• Transactional Alliances: Foreign partnerships under Trump may lean heavily on immediate, tangible gains rather than long-term strategy.
Uncertainty: Trump's unpredictable approach to Taiwan could embolden Chinese aggression in the region.
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE INDO-PACIFIC REGION
Trump's policies could reshape alliances and power balances across the Indo-Pacific. Key outcomes might include:
• Erosion of Alliances: Inconsistencies in U.S. commitments to allies like Japan and South Korea could create uncertainty. Notably, Japan's growing importance in intelligence-sharing frameworks like the Five Eyes highlights its role as a key player in regional security. Recently, Japan hosted a Five Eyes meeting, reflecting its emergence as a pivotal intelligence hub amid tightening Chinese information controls.
• Rising Chinese Influence: Any vacuum in U.S. leadership could allow China to expand its dominance, particularly in contested areas such as the South China Sea.
This story is from the November 27, 2024 edition of The Business Guardian.
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This story is from the November 27, 2024 edition of The Business Guardian.
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