Here's one prediction about the US election you can take to the bank. When the result is finally known, there will be a stampede of experts and prognosticators rushing to insist that, in effect, they knew it all along that, hard though it was to glimpse through the fog of polls and shifting data, the eventual outcome was obvious. Even inevitable.
That will be truer still if, when the voters' will is finally known, it turns out not to have been so close after all, with one of the two main candidates sweeping most of the swing states to rack up a healthy majority in the electoral college if not the popular vote.
The funny thing is, if that happens for either candidate - it would not entirely be a surprise. In advance, you could sketch out a very plausible case for why Donald Trump could retake the presidency. And you could do the same for why Kamala Harris might become the first woman to hold the world's most powerful office.
Start with the scenario of a victorious Trump understand it might require a single number: 28. That's the percentage of Americans who tell pollsters they believe the country is on the right track. A measly 28%. In that environment, incumbent parties lose. And, for all the drama and buzz of her swift installation as candidate, her positioning as the face of change, Harris is a member of the incumbent party and a senior figure in the current US government. A nation that made clear long ago that it wanted to fire Joe Biden, largely over the cost of living and rising prices, as well as immigration, was bound to seize the chance to do the next best thing and reject his deputy.
If there was a way to avoid that fate, it would have required Harris to make a cleaner break from Biden than she was willing to. Whether it was personal respect for the man, or fear of rupturing her coalition, she didn't do what had to be done.
This story is from the November 08, 2024 edition of The Guardian Weekly.
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This story is from the November 08, 2024 edition of The Guardian Weekly.
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