Polls All signs point to a big Labour win - but final seat tally may still surprise

It's been six weeks since Rishi Sunak, in his rain-sodden jacket, announced that the next UK general election would be held on 4 July.

- Ashley Kirk

At that point, Labour was leading by 21.8 points in the polls. Now, as we come to the end of a largely stale six-week campaign, its lead stands at 20 points - down nearly two points.

Labour has fallen from 44.8% on 22 May to 40.7% yesterday - just two days before polling day. But this has not translated into a similar drop in its overall lead because the Conservatives have also seen their support drop.

As of 1 July, the Tories were on 20.7%-down 2.3 points from 23% on 22 May. While Sunak will have hoped to capitalise on Labour's fall, a spluttering Tory campaign does not look to have won him any favours in the polls.

These numbers are based on the Guardian's poll tracker, which takes an average of all polls for the preceding 10 days. They demonstrate the main trend seen over the campaign: there has been a drop in support for the two major parties, with Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats being the main beneficiaries.

The largest shift in the polls has been for Reform, which started on 11.1%, but after Nigel Farage came back to lead the party had a bounce in support and ended on 15.9%.