Ukraine will have to pay the price for Putin and Trump's delusions about one another

Tom Watling speaks to US and British former officials about the overconfidence of the president-elect and Russia's leader

Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin seriously underestimate what the other is capable of and that carries far-ranging risks for Ukraine over Russia’s invasion, Britain’s former spy chief and ex-diplomats have told The Independent.

Trump’s US election victory last week has upended Europe’s plan to back Kyiv for “as long as it takes”. His focus is on ending the war quickly, even if that potentially means pushing Kyiv to cede territory currently occupied by Russia.

Sir Alex Younger, former chief of MI6 from 2014 to 2020, believes both the incoming president and his Russian counterpart overestimate their ability to influence the other.

“I think Trump overestimates his ability to force Putin into a land swap where Putin clearly wants a lot more, when he feels that he is winning and when he has to show [the Russian people] a lot more if he is to justify the appalling sacrifice he’s imposed,” he says. “Trump is underestimating the challenge and overestimating his influence.”

There have been reports about a call between Trump and Putin in the wake of the US president-elect’s win at the ballot box, but they have been denied by the Kremlin.

Sir Laurie Bristow, the UK’s ex-ambassador to Moscow from 2016 to 2020, says such a move would be a dangerous game to play. It could also be indicative of Trump’s hubris. The incoming president came under fire during his first term when he met with Putin in July 2018 in Helsinki, Finland, without his advisers present.

He went on to contradict US intelligence agencies by saying there had been no reason for Russia to meddle in the 2016 election which handed him a first term in the White House.

“I think it speaks volumes about his possible overconfidence and a lack of understanding about the personality that he is dealing with,” says Sir Laurie, describing Putin as a “KGB man through and through”.