A Weaker Iran Looks To Tackle Trump 2.0

Iran faces a tough year of confrontation with the incoming Trump administration while holding a weak hand after 2024 left it with an acute economic crisis at home and setbacks in the Middle East.

- BENOIT FAUCON

The new U.S. administration plans to increase sanctions on Iran as part of an effort to contain its support for militant groups in the Middle East. Tehran's strategy, less potent than it was, still threatens Washington's allies and partners, especially Israel, and is also unpopular among many ordinary Iranians. President-elect Donald Trump's team is also weighing options, including airstrikes, to keep Iran from building a nuclear weapon.

Iran's economy has already been crippled by bad management, corruption and sanctions. Power shortages disrupt offices, schools and manufacturing plants. Iran's military threat has been blunted by Israel's battering of allies Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, the now-collapsed Assad regime in Syria and much of Iran's air defenses.

The Islamic Republic's difficulties represent the biggest challenge to its clerical leaders since 2022, when the death of a young woman in police custody after allegedly wearing an improper veil sparked widespread unrest, crushed with brute force.

While protests over the worsening economy remain limited, the regime appears more vulnerable to unrest now.

Iran's leadership "is probably experiencing the most profound challenges of its own making" in years, said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House in London. That could push Tehran to negotiate a compromise with the West, she added.

President Masoud Pezeshkian was elected in July on a platform of social reforms, economic revival and political opening to the West. But Iranians' hopes of improving their daily lives are unraveling.