Climate Change Keeps Some Crops Pricey

Extreme weather boosted prices of cocoa, coffee and orange juice in 2024

- KIRK MALTAIS

Raw materials like cocoa rose to records in 2024-outpacing other, more-glamorous assets and showing signs of going even higher in 2025.

Most-active cocoa futures trading on the Intercontinental Exchange have been the best-performing asset this year so far, with an record closing high of $12,565 a metric ton last week according to data from FactSet, almost triple where it started the year. Instrumental behind that rise was unprecedented extreme weather, which shows no signs of mellowing in the new year and instead looks to wreak even more havoc on commodities markets.

"With adverse weather, we've seen subpar harvests," said Oran van Dort, a commodities analyst with Rabobank.

Weather-hampered produc tion boosted cocoa, coffee and orange-juice futures on the ICE all year, pushing them to record levels in 2024. Coffee rose 73%, to peak at $3.34 a pound-the highest level since 1977.

Orange juice gained 69% in 2024, spiking at a record of $5.48 a pound on Thursday. These three soft commodities outperformed the majority of more typically headline-grabbing commodities, such as gold and crude oil.

Cocoa even outperformed bitcoin, which had its own surge after President-elect Donald Trump's victory in November's election, leaving it more than doubled in the year to date.