Europe's Faustian Bargain

A year ago, the EU and Turkey made a controversial deal to stem the flow of refugees into Europe. How has it panned out?

Why was a deal necessary?

Because in 2015, Europe, for the first time in its modern history, received a mass influx of refugees from outside the European continent. In the course of the year, more than one million “irregular migrants” arrived in the EU. Most were fleeing civil war and instability in the Middle East: about half were Syrians, 20% Afghans and 10% Iraqis. Some 885,000 of them came to Europe via Greece’s islands in the Aegean Sea, such as Lesbos and Chios, just off the Turkish coast. Humanitarian concern – fed by the image of the Syrian toddler Alan Kurdi, who had died at sea and was washed up on a Turkish beach – led to Germany announcing it would accept all asylum seekers. That substantially increased the migrant flow and this, in turn, led to a backlash: borders were closed across Europe, and in March 2016 a deal known as the EU-Turkey Statement was announced.

What did the deal agree?

It stated that all migrants crossing from Turkey to the Greek islands whose asylum requests were rejected, or who did not apply for asylum, would be sent back to Turkey. But for every Syrian returned, another registered Syrian refugee in Turkey would be resettled in the EU. Turkey also agreed to take extensive measures to stop people-smuggling, closing all known routes into the EU. In return, Turkey, which now hosts 2.5 million Syrian refugees, would get s3bn in aid from the EU to support both “refugees and host communities”. Talks concerning Turkey’s accession to the EU would be “re-energised”, and steps taken to allow Turkish citizens visa-free travel to Europe.

And how well has the deal worked?